SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Small but politically influential

Southwestern New Hampshire is among the most politically liberal parts of a state that in recent decades has been shedding some of its conservative skin. The region’s representation in the state Legislature is roughly 75 percent Democratic; due to last November’s electoral tsunami, Democrats now control about 60 percent of the entire 400-member Legislature.

The southwestern section, which is set apart from the populous Merrimack Valley by a mountain and open spaces, accounts for only a small part of the New Hampshire electorate, but the voting data listed below show its impact. This part of the state was principally responsible for the entire state shifting from the Republican electoral column to the Democratic column between the Presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 – the only state in the country to do so.

Divining the 2008 presidential primary on the basis of any the foregoing is dangerous stuff. No presidential primary is like any that preceded it. Some crowded contests have been “won” with as little as 27 percent of the vote and in other cases it took an actual majority to find a winner. A further curiosity is that it’s been possible to “win” the primary in pundits’ eyes while actually coming in second – by doing better than anyone expected.

As for the region’s voting patterns relative to the state as a whole, a liberal or moderate inclination is clear. In 1996, for example, conservative columnist Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, but he came in third in this part of the state, behind moderates Bob Dole and Lamar Alexander. And in the 2004 Democratic primary, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry won the state by a large margin, but in this region he finished second to former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, whose positions were generally more liberal.

The Monadnock Region, which owes its name to a mountain that rises above picturesque Dublin Lake, is a collection of about 30 communities, the largest of which is Keene. About three-quarters of those communities comprise Cheshire County, the voting records for which are broken down below.

2006 Voter Registration
UNDECLARED: Cheshire County 23,523 (46 percent of registered voters); New Hampshire 356,897 (43 percent)
DEMOCRAT: Cheshire County 14,562 (29 percent of registered voters); New Hampshire 216,005 (26 percent)
REPUBLICAN: Cheshire County 12,749 (25 percent of registered voters); New Hampshire 253,736 (31 percent)

Some commentators define “Undeclared” voters as “Independent” – that is, not affiliated philosophically with any political party. That sounds right, but in many cases the decision to be recorded as “Undeclared” in New Hampshire reflects less on ideology than on a desire not to be roped into an organization, a preference that’s consistent with the state’s motto of “Live Free or Die.”

So, there are people who are registered as “Undeclared” but whose actual voting patterns reflect allegiances to the Republican party or the Democratic party; one advantage to such a status is that it enables voters to take part in primaries of their own choice – they can choose a Republican ballot or a Democratic ballot. Another attraction of “Undeclared” registration is the fact that one’s name commonly doesn’t show up on the telemarketing lists of political campaign workers.

HOW UNDECLARED VOTERS VOTE: A voter who is registered as “undeclared” may vote in primaries. In the September, 2006 state primary, undeclared voters went Democratic more than Republican, according to a study by the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office. In Cheshire County, 1,159 of them marked Democratic ballots, and 813 marked Republican ballots. In the state, 12,358 of the 356,897 undeclared registrants voted Democratic and 11,755 voted Republican.

Recent voting:

2004

2004 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IN CHESHIRE COUNTY AND THE STATE
Howard Dean: Cheshire County 5,040 (New Hampshire 57,788)
John Kerry: Cheshire County 4,705 (New Hampshire 84,229)
Wesley Clark: Cheshire County 2,184 (New Hampshire 27,254)
John Edwards: Cheshire County 1,742 (New Hampshire 26,415)
Dennis Kucinich Cheshire County 504 (New Hampshire 3,104)

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH FACED MINIMAL PRIMARY OPPOSITION IN 2004

2004 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS IN CHESHIRE COUNTY AND THE STATE
John Kerry (Democrat): Cheshire County 24,438 (New Hampshire 340,511)
George Bush (Republican): Cheshire County 16,463 (New Hampshire 331,237)

2000

2000 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IN CHESHIRE COUNTY AND THE STATE
Al Gore: Cheshire County: 4,766 (New Hampshire: 76,897)
Bill Bradley: Cheshire County: 4,567 (New Hampshire: 70,502)

2000 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN CHESHIRE COUNTY AND THE STATE
John McCain: Cheshire County 6,583 (New Hampshire 115,606)
George Bush: Cheshire County 3,666 (New Hampshire 72,330)
Steve Forbes: Cheshire County 1,547 (New Hampshire 30,116)
Alan Keyes: Cheshire County 776 (New Hampshire 15,179)

2000 GENERAL ELECTION IN CHESHIRE COUNTY AND THE STATE
Al Gore (Democrat): Cheshire County 17,382 (New Hampshire 266,348)
George W. Bush (Republican): Cheshire County 13,793 (New Hampshire 273,559)
Ralph Nader (Green): Cheshire County 1,750 (New Hampshire 22,198)

1996

1996 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN CHESHIRE COUNTY AND THE STATE
Bob Dole: Cheshire County 3,018 (New Hampshire 54,738)
Lamar Alexander: Cheshire County 2,703 (New Hampshire 47,148)
Pat Buchanan: Cheshire County 2,548 (New Hampshire 56,874)
Steve Forbes: Cheshire County 1,349 (New Hampshire 25,505)
Richard Lugar: Cheshire County 847 (New Hampshire 10,838)

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON FACED MINIMAL PRIMARY OPPOSITION

1996 GENERAL ELECTION IN CHESHIRE COUNTY AND THE STATE
Bill Clinton (Democrat): Cheshire County 16,159 (New Hampshire 246,214)
Bob Dole (Republican) Cheshire County 10,252 (New Hampshire 196,532)

1992

1992 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IN CHESHIRE COUNTY AND THE STATE
Paul Tsongas: Cheshire County: 4,567 (New Hampshire: 70,502)
Bill Clinton: Cheshire County: 2,809 (New Hampshire: 41,540)
Bob Kerry: Cheshire County: 1,149 (New Hampshire: 18,584)
Jerry Brown: Cheshire County: 1,321 (New Hampshire: 13,659)
Tom Harkin: Cheshire County: 871 (New Hampshire: 17,063)

1992 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN CHESHIRE COUNTY AND THE STATE
George H.W. Bush: Cheshire County 5,295 (New Hampshire 92,271)
Pat Buchanan: Cheshire County 3,666 (New Hampshire 72,330)

1992 GENERAL ELECTION IN CHESHIRE COUNTY AND THE STATE
Bill Clinton (Democrat): Cheshire County 15,037 (New Hampshire 209,040)
George H.W. Bush (Republican): Cheshire County 11,037 (New Hampshire 202,484)
Ross Perot (Independent): Cheshire County 6,195 (New Hampshire 121,337)

o-o-o

SOME DEMOGRAPHIC BASICS ABOUT CHESHIRE COUNTY, FROM THE CENSUS BUREAU (2005 estimates)
POPULATION: 77,000 (New Hampshire total population is 1.3 million)
RACE: 98 percent white (New Hampshire as a whole is 96.1 percent white)
VOTING AGE POPULATION: 61,000 (New Hampshire total is just under 1 million)
REGISTERED TO VOTE: County: 50,834 (about six percent of the New Hampshire total of 826,638)

THE ECONOMY:
The business sector of southwestern New Hampshire is widely diversified, with significant factory operations in precision optics, medical industry disposables, insurance, higher education and health care. The jobless rate is typically well below the national average.
To learn more about the region, please click here

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